As predicted by media Jagan has won most of the seats for which by elections are held in AP. The question now is why a person who is accused in most heinous corruptions and is in Jail can manage this kind of victory. Many of the reasons for his victory are having their origin in the system of politics run in our nation.
The sympathy factor – Since the death YSR, Jagan tried to fill his fathers position. But the mafia family was not allowed it. He tried Odarpu yathra drama and Congress High Command made an half hearted attempt to stop him. Further there was a proposal to make him a minister in central government which was never followed Sonia gang. Underhand opposition for the Odarpu Yathra from the Congress party only highlighted the feeling that somehow they wanted to deny things to him. Further CBI could have arrested him long back. It did not do that. There is hardly any need to arrest him now. Yet it did arrested him. Congress may defend the conduct of CBI saying the CBI functions autonomously but every one know how CBI functions. In the elections the popular perception is that the CBI had put Jagan in Jail due to vindictive politics of Congress. Media also went to town saying that there is sympathy for Jagan. Voting for sympathy is not healthy for any democratic nation. But in India politicians unashamedly use sympathy for vote purpose. Putting wife of the deceased MLA or MP is now a common practice. Almost all the times a widow contesting in her deceased husband will win the by-election. Many times the other parties do not even seriously contest the such by-elections. So sympathy is regular and unhealthy weapon, just like liquor and money, in the hands of our political leaders. Jagan used this for his advantage and Congress mismanaged it.
Money power - The total amount of cash used in this by elections is highest in the national history. The cash and gold etc recovered alone is about 55 Cr in the elections conducted for 18 seats of State Assembly and 1 seal for Lok Sabha. One estimate puts the expenditure at 700 Cr. This kind of spending indicative of the level of corruption in the state and levels to which politicos will go. Congress people have underestimated the extent Jagan will go to win the CM seat of AP.
Robinhood Welfare mafia: YSR unleashed his “Welfare Schemes” on gullible public of AP in 2004 elections and since then AP state has gone to dogs. Entire administration is replaced by welfare mafia of Congress workers, crony capitalists and corrupt political and babudom bosses. Free electricity for farmers killed power production and distribution in AP and it may take decades to bring on line. Ground water level fallen to the extent that most of it will take decades to recharge. Most of the rural areas are now in darkness for most of the time. Free distribution of money in the name of providing employment guarantee (thanks to welfare mafia at Delhi) and in the name of pensions created a situation that there is no workers available for agricultural activity. Rice for 2 rupees scheme created a miller politico gang up resulted in farmers stopping cultivation due to lack of marketing and not remunerative prices. Entire crises facing AP farmers require more space and a separate post. Congress since the death of YSR did nothing to create at least an impression in public that it cares for the people. While the drama of welfare continues in its most pathetic delivery levels the general impression of indifference to the “ plight” of “poor” stuck with the Congress administration. Jagan naturally seen as a YSR heir in this drama and a person who cares for poor. Destruction of education, health, farming and power sectors under YSR systems for welfare could not be highlighted by the Congress leadership which initially claimed to be political successors of YSR. While Congress got stuck in the mess created by YSR, Jagan inherited all the good will.
Corruption: YSR had run the most corrupt state government in national history. Yet Congress can not open its mouth against it as most of the Congress leaders, ministers are also involved in the same. Jagan can not be individual blamed for this and arrested with all the Congress ministers enjoying the life. Have Congress arrested all the ministers (some 7 people) involved in the actions benifited Jagan along with Jagan, Congress could have escaped the allegation of vindictive politics. But by allowing arrest of Jagan and keeping all the ministers in power it allowed Jagan to play victim card.
Telangana Card: All but one MLA seat is in Non Telangana areas wherein anger on Congress for December 9th announcement is present as under current. Congress never seriously tried to assure the people that their interests are being protected. Now that it is not going to proceed with the division of AP, it should have announced the decision now itself and worked the way out of the mess by 2014. By allowing the issue burn the entire state for almost two years congress showed that it does not care for Telugu people. While it lost its deposit in One Telangana seat, its lack of stand caused loss in other 17 MLA seats and Nellore.
Candidate Selection: I wonder how they have selected T Subbarami Reddy for Nellore MP seat. Other than seen with movie actors this person is not related to Nellore for decades. People have a very poor impression about him. Similarly Magunta Parvathamma is from Nellore, why they have allowed her to Contest from Ongole MLA seat? No one knows. She could have made a reasonable candidate at Nellore MP seat and Magunta family still well known in Nellore and Her husband and after his murder, She herself were MPs from Ongole when Nellore was a reserved seat. But that was long back to hold any grip on Ongole and they could have brought her back to Nellore. I do not know much about the other candidates, but news reports are full of disputes between PCC chief, Cm and Joker in the Pack – Chiranjeevi. This I am sure resulted in bad candidate selection and infightings in the elections.
Evangelical factor: The elephant in the pack is the Evangelical factor, money wise and mobilization wise. Jagan and YSRs efforts to Convert AP under Christian state are well known to everyone but no one wants to say anything about it. TDP made some noises initially and kept quite. Jagan with his promise to support Christian (UPA) rule in Delhi and his brother in law Anil and other activists command good mobilization power here. There are no counter efforts from Congress or TDP.
This election victory ensured the presence of Jagan and his criminal gang party until 2014. How he performe then is any ones guess. But I am sure Congress will be in a very bad condition then. Who will pick the AP will determine who will be in power in Delhi. I hope it is not some one Jagan supports that means neither Congress and Jagan.
The sympathy factor – Since the death YSR, Jagan tried to fill his fathers position. But the mafia family was not allowed it. He tried Odarpu yathra drama and Congress High Command made an half hearted attempt to stop him. Further there was a proposal to make him a minister in central government which was never followed Sonia gang. Underhand opposition for the Odarpu Yathra from the Congress party only highlighted the feeling that somehow they wanted to deny things to him. Further CBI could have arrested him long back. It did not do that. There is hardly any need to arrest him now. Yet it did arrested him. Congress may defend the conduct of CBI saying the CBI functions autonomously but every one know how CBI functions. In the elections the popular perception is that the CBI had put Jagan in Jail due to vindictive politics of Congress. Media also went to town saying that there is sympathy for Jagan. Voting for sympathy is not healthy for any democratic nation. But in India politicians unashamedly use sympathy for vote purpose. Putting wife of the deceased MLA or MP is now a common practice. Almost all the times a widow contesting in her deceased husband will win the by-election. Many times the other parties do not even seriously contest the such by-elections. So sympathy is regular and unhealthy weapon, just like liquor and money, in the hands of our political leaders. Jagan used this for his advantage and Congress mismanaged it.
Money power - The total amount of cash used in this by elections is highest in the national history. The cash and gold etc recovered alone is about 55 Cr in the elections conducted for 18 seats of State Assembly and 1 seal for Lok Sabha. One estimate puts the expenditure at 700 Cr. This kind of spending indicative of the level of corruption in the state and levels to which politicos will go. Congress people have underestimated the extent Jagan will go to win the CM seat of AP.
Robinhood Welfare mafia: YSR unleashed his “Welfare Schemes” on gullible public of AP in 2004 elections and since then AP state has gone to dogs. Entire administration is replaced by welfare mafia of Congress workers, crony capitalists and corrupt political and babudom bosses. Free electricity for farmers killed power production and distribution in AP and it may take decades to bring on line. Ground water level fallen to the extent that most of it will take decades to recharge. Most of the rural areas are now in darkness for most of the time. Free distribution of money in the name of providing employment guarantee (thanks to welfare mafia at Delhi) and in the name of pensions created a situation that there is no workers available for agricultural activity. Rice for 2 rupees scheme created a miller politico gang up resulted in farmers stopping cultivation due to lack of marketing and not remunerative prices. Entire crises facing AP farmers require more space and a separate post. Congress since the death of YSR did nothing to create at least an impression in public that it cares for the people. While the drama of welfare continues in its most pathetic delivery levels the general impression of indifference to the “ plight” of “poor” stuck with the Congress administration. Jagan naturally seen as a YSR heir in this drama and a person who cares for poor. Destruction of education, health, farming and power sectors under YSR systems for welfare could not be highlighted by the Congress leadership which initially claimed to be political successors of YSR. While Congress got stuck in the mess created by YSR, Jagan inherited all the good will.
Corruption: YSR had run the most corrupt state government in national history. Yet Congress can not open its mouth against it as most of the Congress leaders, ministers are also involved in the same. Jagan can not be individual blamed for this and arrested with all the Congress ministers enjoying the life. Have Congress arrested all the ministers (some 7 people) involved in the actions benifited Jagan along with Jagan, Congress could have escaped the allegation of vindictive politics. But by allowing arrest of Jagan and keeping all the ministers in power it allowed Jagan to play victim card.
Telangana Card: All but one MLA seat is in Non Telangana areas wherein anger on Congress for December 9th announcement is present as under current. Congress never seriously tried to assure the people that their interests are being protected. Now that it is not going to proceed with the division of AP, it should have announced the decision now itself and worked the way out of the mess by 2014. By allowing the issue burn the entire state for almost two years congress showed that it does not care for Telugu people. While it lost its deposit in One Telangana seat, its lack of stand caused loss in other 17 MLA seats and Nellore.
Candidate Selection: I wonder how they have selected T Subbarami Reddy for Nellore MP seat. Other than seen with movie actors this person is not related to Nellore for decades. People have a very poor impression about him. Similarly Magunta Parvathamma is from Nellore, why they have allowed her to Contest from Ongole MLA seat? No one knows. She could have made a reasonable candidate at Nellore MP seat and Magunta family still well known in Nellore and Her husband and after his murder, She herself were MPs from Ongole when Nellore was a reserved seat. But that was long back to hold any grip on Ongole and they could have brought her back to Nellore. I do not know much about the other candidates, but news reports are full of disputes between PCC chief, Cm and Joker in the Pack – Chiranjeevi. This I am sure resulted in bad candidate selection and infightings in the elections.
Evangelical factor: The elephant in the pack is the Evangelical factor, money wise and mobilization wise. Jagan and YSRs efforts to Convert AP under Christian state are well known to everyone but no one wants to say anything about it. TDP made some noises initially and kept quite. Jagan with his promise to support Christian (UPA) rule in Delhi and his brother in law Anil and other activists command good mobilization power here. There are no counter efforts from Congress or TDP.
This election victory ensured the presence of Jagan and his criminal gang party until 2014. How he performe then is any ones guess. But I am sure Congress will be in a very bad condition then. Who will pick the AP will determine who will be in power in Delhi. I hope it is not some one Jagan supports that means neither Congress and Jagan.