Elections of 2014 - Prospects of BJP.

At the outset, I must confess that I am BJP supporter having been in RSS from Childhood and worked for BJP during elections before becoming a public servant. So you may take my views as bias towards BJP. However, having worked in elections (which we used to lose regularly as BJP is very weak in AP), I think my estimates may be nearer to results.

First of all, most of the independent observers and record opponents agree that there is a Modi wave. I have first-hand information in the use of information technology by Modi supporters and his team, and it is perhaps the most detailed and systematic use of data anywhere in the world. May be Obama team did that. However, that team has to deal with a nation not even one present of Indian complexities. Sheet size of the voting population, different communities, regions, local variations etc. make the data creation, management and use a tough one and Modi team done admirably well. It also helps by the fact that BJP is a cadre-based party with workers of the party speeding out entire nation including in places like Kerala and northeast wherein political BJP is feeble. These workers in many cases are from Sangh Parivar and are trained in disciple and ideologically committed. The processed data was and is being put to good use in all the places by these workers. What Modi has done is to create the strong wind. If in a seat wherein party can raise the sail then the boat will move otherwise no. For this BJP intelligently allied with all kinds of smaller parties currently being ignored by other national groupings.

Even one MP seat capable parties were roped in. We can see the example at Maharastra. Past bad behaviour by people like Chandra Babu Naidu and Telugu Desam Party (whose workers even now say that Modi copied their leader and their leader is equal to Modi )  was forgiven to forge allegiance. Hard bargaining seems to be the norm in such cases and give and take to be the norm in case of parties like RPI (Atwale) and LJP which now appears to be moving under the son of Ram Vilas Paswan who has now spent much time without power and has little chance of a comeback.

Another aspect of the efforts is the unwavering and unrelenting effort by Modi himself who is continuously campaigning for almost a year now. This kind of energy could not a matched by anyone from Congress.  Projection on clear and strong leadership by Modi in a national election wherein Manmohan and Rahul type “leaders” presents a clear and better option for voters.

Media and perception Management was the weakest point of the BJP since inception. The English national media are anti-Hindu in its ideology and leftish in the economic outlook. Most of the “prominent” opinion makers persons be it TV, News Papers, Writers, Novelists, Film and Tv Movie personalities are all anti-Hindu in their worldly view. BJP as a Hindu party is always opposed by almost every one of them.  Congress, on the other hand, is a darling for all these people, and the party also provided these people be kept in good humour by all kinds of inducements, benefits, titles and outright payments in the form of liberal advertisements etc. This has converted most of the opinion makers into Courtiers of Congress. However, Modi after being on the receiving end of these opinion makers over a decade has now managed to communicate with people directly. Intelligent use of social media also helps him very much. Hard work in Gujarat State and his achievement and its results were adequately communicated to the voters across the length and breadth of the nation.  Most of the voters now see him as a capable, honest, hard-working administrator who has delivered in one state and capable of providing development and good governance at national level. By sticking to the message of development and good governance as the lead narrative with a little humour, direct and indirect attacks on the failed Congress rule, he could mobilise millions of votes for BJP. Now Media has to telecast him directly all the time because that is what gives them TRPs. He is the only topic of discussion everywhere. Almost everyone in the nation knows him like they know Indira Gandhi.

The effect of the first time and young voters are not factored in by Congress. They are completely ignored by Congress or they are just expected to fall in love with Rahul Gandhi. However, the problem with Rahul is his utter lack of capabilities, achievements, involvement. Further in today’s aspiration based world, he cannot full fill the expectations of these young voters. In fact, his advisors, most of whom have not exposure to and understanding of the real world, made him to speak about entitlement reservations, secularism, welfare, freebies. This failed to garner the support of the young voters. He is also could not explain the failure to create jobs for ten years, massive corruption, mis-governance of her mother’s rule. Congress simply expected the nation to fall on their keens and worship their Sahebzada. But this is not 1900s and nation has moved on from such ideas. Congress failed to move on with the nation.

The golden rule the opposition parties including BJP fallowed till now is not attacking the dynasty directly and personally. However, that rule is now irrevocably broken by Modi and his open ridiculing of Rahul resulting removing the halo around the heads of dynasty. Now even a D class Jihadi leader like Azam Khan can make a statement that Allah killed Rajiv and Sanjay Gandhi for their sins. Now Dynasty is fair game for all the political parties, and it is unaccustomed to face such attacks and is unable counter any of them. Many of the Congress leaders are confident they will not win this election. People like Chidambaram simply ran away from elections due to fear. The public posturing of their media representatives continues to amuse people.

One more this that is going to contribute the BJP win will develop its strategy of focusing on the selective seats where it can win. BJP is now focusing in 278 seats which it has won earlier and another 75 seats wherein it stood second place earlier. Since last few months, serious efforts are being made to win all these seats. Huge number of party workers is doing continuous work towards this. Technology-based micro management and the focusing of each polling booth under the plan - ‘Booth jito, chunav jito (win the booth and win elections) will play rich dividend.

On the other hand, Congress is still fighting an election with outdated methods and ideas. Its sloe idea now is Secularism can mobilize Muslim votes to some extent, but it will not mobilize vast Hindu votes. Further, it now has very negative connotations in Hindu mind. Hindus feel that they are being treated as second-class citizens by Congress which now headed by an Italian born Roman Catholic whose daughter also married a Christian.  Such civilisation disconnect with the Hindus is never helpful, and Congress never tried to dispel the ill felling many Hindus has towards it.  

Even up to the 2^nd half of 2013, Congress is faced with a disorganized weak and uninspiring BJP. However, it all changed with the arrival of Modi in the national stage, and Congress leaders surrounded to its courtiers’ failed to react. In fact, its simply do not have resources to fight a charismatic leader like Modi. Now it is staring at what could be its biggest defeat even and may not even reach a three-figure mark.

My calculation not based on any firsthand knowledge ( Except in UP wherein I have spoken with few prominent peoples families) and media reports and opinion polls is as below. Just back of the envelop kind of stuff and

This is without allies.

State name	Bare Minimum/Least	Maximum
UP	40	53
Bihar	20	25
Delhi	6	7
MP	15	22
Chattisgarh	8	10
Undivided AP	2	5
Rajasthan	20	25
Gujarath	20	26
Maharastra	20	25
Karnataka	10	15
Orissa	0	5
WB	0	2
Assam	0	6
Uttaranchal Plus Himachal	5	8
TN plus Kerala	0	2
North East	0	1
Haryana, Punjab and J& K	9	11
Total	153	248

BJP allies will add to 40 to 50 seats totally at the national level.

The least figure is too conservative and will be there if all things failed to click and BJP and Modi utterly fail to achieve even 25% of what they set out to achieve and this is too pessimistic projection unlikely to happen.    

However, as of now, Congress has already thrown the towel, and most of the voters believe that BJP will win the elections and Modi will form the government. Winnability feeling at national level always makes marginal seats winnable individually also because people like to vote for the winners. The discipline of RSS will ensure that the over confidence shown in 2004 is not there in 2014. So the final results will be very near to the maximum figure of 246 or just below that. Allies will add around 50, and flowers like TRS, DMK, AIDMK, Jagan, BJD and others will jump into supporting NDA – may be using colourful forages like issue-based support and all that.